phil beisel
@pbeisel · Mar 18, 2026
Terafab math
For “big” chips like Tesla’s AI5 (a half-reticle design, roughly 300–450 mm²), producing 100 million chips per year would require on the order of ~100k wafer starts per month, roughly the output of a single high-volume leading-edge fab.
At current industry
phil beisel@pbeisel· Mar 17, 2026Terafab may be the most essential vertical integration Tesla has ever undertaken— and it is truly non-optional.
It will take years to build and will test even Elon’s speedrunning abilities to the limit, but that won’t stop him from trying.
The breakthrough likely lies in
Elon Musk
@elonmusk
Probably more like 160k wafers/month, factoring in yield
07:51 AM · March 19, 2026 · 230.7K views
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