Posts
Reagan Beck
@bluemoondance74 · Nov 14, 2020
Pos or not, how’re you feeling?? Still the same cold-like symptoms? Fever?
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 14, 2020
Cold symptoms are gone for now 😀🚀💫
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Stephen King
@StephenKing · Nov 13, 2020
You’re pos.
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 14, 2020
There are degrees of pos
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 14, 2020
Replying to @Rollinnthewind
Heneghan makes a lot of sense. Hilarious that he has to clarify that he runs the Center for *Evidence-Based* Medicine at Oxford 🤣🤣. General public doesn’t realize quite how much of medicine is subjective or outright witchcraft.
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whatsupfranks
@WhatsupFranks · Nov 13, 2020
@elonmusk
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 14, 2020
The number of PCR amplification cycles required to detect the virus is a rough indicator of your viral load. From what I can gather, you’re probably not infectious above 30 & you probably are below 25. Sound about right?
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 13, 2020
Replying to @Rollinnthewind
This a great reference! Worth a read.
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 13, 2020
Case closed
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 13, 2020
Soon
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Pranay Pathole
@PPathole · Nov 13, 2020
And UK govt is using 45 cycles, each cycle amplifies the DNA to pick up the virus. Anything above 20 cycles and you are in absolute false positive zone. The NHS is using 45 cycles.
W.H.O on the other hand recommends using 50 cycles, let that sink in.
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 13, 2020
Fwiw, lab I just spoke to thinks below 30 is accurate, 30 to 40 gets dicey & above 40 is bs. Will talk to several more labs. There must be a graph of PCR amplification cycle vs false positive rate somewhere.
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 13, 2020
What is the general population (no knowledge of symptoms) accuracy of a sars-cov2 PCR test & is it possible to generate a false positive if you simply run enough cycles?
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 13, 2020
Lab I just spoke to said cov2 PCR detection (N1 & N3 genes) below 30 cycles is reliable & above 40 cycles is not
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 13, 2020
Just spoke directly to a testing lab. Their main PCR search is for the N1 gene, unique to cov2. N3 is also sought, but is generic to other sars viruses. High PCR cycle count *does* give false positives, but they believe accuracy is good below 30 cycles & 40 cycles is their max.
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 13, 2020
Note, this is not the spike protein. They don’t consider that reliable.
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Pope of Muskanity
@RationalEtienne · Nov 13, 2020
True, yet the flu has a very different disease pattern than COVID-19.
There's undoubtedly a percentage of covid cases that are actually just people with the flu. That percentage is more elevated in areas with low REAL covid cases, high real flu rate and elevated testing.
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 13, 2020
Just spoke directly to a testing lab. Their main PCR search is for the N1 gene, unique to cov2. N3 is also sought, but is generic to other sars viruses. High PCR cycle count *does* give false positives, but they believe accuracy is good below 30 cycles & 40 cycles is their max.
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Pranay Pathole
@PPathole · Nov 13, 2020
And UK govt is using 45 cycles, each cycle amplifies the DNA to pick up the virus. Anything above 20 cycles and you are in absolute false positive zone. The NHS is using 45 cycles.
W.H.O on the other hand recommends using 50 cycles, let that sink in.
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 13, 2020
Strange
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 13, 2020
Moreover, lower the true prevalence, the higher the false positive number will be. This sounds obvious, but it could mean a very high false positive percentage if true prevalence is low.
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 13, 2020
Possible explanation for the dramatic decline in cold & flu prevalence vs prior years. If someone comes in with cold/flu symptoms & falsely tests positive for cov2, they will assume they have it, when in fact they simply have some other form of seasonal cold/flu.
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 13, 2020
From fda.gov/medical-device…
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 13, 2020
Moreover, lower the true prevalence, the higher the false positive number will be. This sounds obvious, but it could mean a very high false positive percentage if true prevalence is low.
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Ryan Shea
@ryaneshea · Nov 13, 2020
What you want to know is the "positive predictive value" (PPV) AKA the chance of a real positive given a positive result
Every test is different - this PDF has data on hundreds
Abbott's ID NOW test, for example, has a PPV of 94%
csb.mgh.harvard.edu/covid
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 13, 2020
From
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𝔇𝔞𝔫𝔞 🌞
@daelmor · Nov 13, 2020
the variance in these comments is alarming.
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 13, 2020
Sure is
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 13, 2020
What is the general population (no knowledge of symptoms) accuracy of a sars-cov2 PCR test & is it possible to generate a false positive if you simply run enough cycles?
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 13, 2020
Would be great to hear from people who know a lot about the PCR testing industry. What’s the approximate false positive rate, all things considered, for cov2 PCR tests?
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 13, 2020
Replying to @ClareCraigPath
Interesting
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John Beans
@john_beans · Nov 13, 2020
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 13, 2020
Interesting
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · Nov 13, 2020
What is the general population (no knowledge of symptoms) accuracy of a sars-cov2 PCR test & is it possible to generate a false positive if you simply run enough cycles?
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